Estimating in a Highly Uncertain Context
Half-Day Workshop by Jan De Baere
Thursday, November 10, 2022
13:00 - 17:00 CEST
In-Person, Mechelen, Belgium
Early Bird until Sep. 23: € 200 + VAT
Regular: € 250 + VAT
€ 25 discount for IIBA® members
As a Business Analyst we get or ask the question a lot: please give me an estimation or forecast. Sometimes the job — a task, user story, project — is well known and well understood. Sometimes it's highly uncertain. How do we go about it? What answer do we expect to get when we ask the question? What is the impact of the way we are organized on estimations? Sometimes estimations are a gamble, sometimes useful and sometimes it are plain lies. How can we tell the difference?
The classic estimation techniques such as "cutting the elephant into pieces" do not work in a complex context. Even more so, my experience is that in a complex organisation this technique results in an underestimation of the effort & lead time typically of a factor of 3-4. So, which techniques are applicable in which context?
A story of fat tails and common sense. Based on ideas and concepts from the books "Antifragility", "Fooled by randomness", "The Principles of Product Development Flow" any many more. All of this supplemented by experience from the field and practical exercises.
Speaker
Jan De Baere is organisational coach at Cegeka. He helps organisations evolve from static to dynamic, using social technologies like agile, S3.0, theory U, liberating structures, …
